- Kutengeserana kweChina neLatin America neCaribbean kwakakura 26-fold pakati pe2000 ne2020. Kutengeserana kweLAC-China kunotarisirwa kudarika kaviri ne2035, kusvika kudarika $ 700 mabhiriyoni.
-Iyo US nemimwe misika yechinyakare inowanzotadza kutora chikamu muLAC yakazara kunze kwenyika mumakore gumi nemashanu anotevera.Zvinogona kunge zvichiwedzera kunetsa kuti LAC ienderere mberi nekuvandudza kukosha kwayo uye kubatsirwa kubva kumusika wedunhu.
-Scenario-kuronga uye marongero matsva anogona kubatsira vanobatana kugadzirira kuchinja kwemamiriro ezvinhu.
Kusimuka kweChina senzvimbo yekutengeserana kwakave nezvakakosha pakutengeserana kwepasirese mumakore makumi maviri apfuura, nezvikamu zvakakosha zvehupfumi muLatin America neCaribbean (LAC) pakati pevabatsiri vakanyanya.Pakati pa2000 na2020, kutengeserana kweChina-LAC kwakakura zvakapetwa makumi maviri nematanhatu kubva pamadhora gumi nemaviri kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi matatu nemashanu.
Mumakore ekuma2000, kudiwa kweChinese kwakafambisa dhizaini yepamusoro muLatin America, zvichibatsira kudzikisira kupararira kwedunhu kwedambudziko remari repasi rose ra2008.Makumi gumi gare gare, kutengeserana neChina kwakaramba kwakatsiga kunyangwe denda, ichipa kwakakosha sosi yekukura kwekunze kwedenda reLAC, iro rinotora makumi matatu muzana yekufa kweCOVID yepasi rose uye vakawana 7.4% GDP contraction muna 2020. hukama hwakasimba hwekutengeserana neUnited States neEurope, kukura kwehupfumi hweChina kune chekuita nebudiriro uye geopolitics muLAC nekumwe.
Iyi inonakidza trajectory yeChina-LAC kutengeserana mumakore makumi maviri adarika zvakare inomutsa mibvunzo yakakosha kwemakumi maviri emakore anotevera: Chii chatingatarisira kubva kune iyi hukama hwekutengeserana?Ndeapi mafambiro ari kubuda anogona kukanganisa aya mafambiro ekutengeserana uye anogona kutamba sei mudunhu nepasirese?Kuvaka pamusoro peduichangoburwa trade Scenarios report, heano matatu akakosha ekuona kune LAC vane chekuita.Izvi zvakawanikwa zvakakoshawo kune veChina neLAC vamwe vatengesi vakuru vekutengesa, kusanganisira United States.
Chii chatinotarisira kuona?
Panyaya yemazuva ano, kutengeserana kweLAC-China kunotarisirwa kudarika $ 700 bhiriyoni ne2035, kanopfuura kaviri kupfuura muna 2020. China ichaswedera-uye inogona kunyange kupfuura-US seLAC yepamusoro yekutengesa shamwari.Muna 2000, kutora chikamu kweChinese kwakaverengera isingasviki 2% yezvese kutengeserana kweLAC.Muna 2035, inogona kusvika 25%.
Huwandu hwenhamba, zvisinei, hunovanza kusawirirana kukuru mukati medunhu rakasiyana.KuMexico, kunoenderana nekutengeserana neUS, nyaya yedu yekutanga inofungidzira kuti kutora chikamu kweChina kunogona kusvika kunosvika 15% yekutengeserana kwenyika kweMexico.Nekune rimwe divi, Brazil, Chile, nePeru zvinogona kuve neinodarika 40% yezvavanotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvichienda kuChina.
Pakazara, hukama hune hutano nevaviri vayo vaviri vakuru vekutengesa vangave mune zvakanakira LAC.Kunyange zvazvo United States ingaona kuderedzwa kwekutora chikamu mukutengeserana kweLAC maererano neChina, hukama hwehemispheric - kunyanya huya hunosanganisira kubatanidzwa kwehutano hwakadzama-ndiyo mutyairi wakakosha wekugadzira kunze kwenyika, kudyara uye kuwedzera kukosha kwedunhu.
China yaizowedzera sei kuwana nzvimbo mukutengesa kweLAC?
Kunyangwe kutengeserana kuchizokura mumativi ese, simba racho rinogona kunge richibva kuLAC inotengeswa kubva kuChina- pane yeLAC inoendesa kuChina.
Kudivi reLAC kunze kwenyika, tinoona China ichiwedzera kukwikwidza mukugadzirwa kwezvinhu kunze kwenyika, nekuda kwekutorwa kwechina Industrial Revolution (4IR) matekinoroji anosanganisira 5G nehungwaru hwekugadzira.Pakazere, kuwanikwa kwechigadzirwa kubva muhunyanzvi uye zvimwe zviwanikwa zvingangopfuura mhedzisiro yevashandi vari kudzikira, zvichitsigira kukwikwidza kweChinese kunze kwenyika.
Padivi reLAC kunze kwenyika, shanduko yakakosha yechikamu inogona kuitika.Zvekurima zveLAC zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuChina ndizvozvisingaiti kuenderera mberinekufamba kwebonanza kwemazuva ano.Kutaura chokwadi, nharaunda yacho icharamba ichikwikwidza mune zvekurima.Asi misika kunze kweChina, yakaita seAfrica, yaizopa mari yakawanda kunze kwenyika.Izvi zvinosimbisa kukosha kwenyika dzeLAC dzekuongorora misika mitsva yekuenda, pamwe nekusiyanisa kuendesa kunze kwenyika kuChina pachayo.
Pachiyero, kukura kwekunze kungangodarika kukura kwekunze, zvichikonzera kushomeka kwekutengeserana kweLAC neChina, kunyangwe paine misiyano yakakura yedunhu.Nepo nhamba diki yenyika dzeLAC dzichitarisirwa kuchengetedza zvakasara neChina, mufananidzo wakafara unoratidza kushomeka kukuru kwekutengeserana kwedunhu.Pamusoro pezvo, mitemo inopindirana, isiri-yekutengeserana ichave yakakosha pakuona kuwanda uye mhedzisiro yekushomeka kwekutengeserana uku munyika imwe neimwe, kubva kumisika yevashandi kuenda kune imwe nyika.
Chii chekutarisira kune intra-LAC kutengeserana muna 2035?
Sezvo denda rakavhiringidza cheni dzepasirese, nhare kubva kuLAC yekumisikidza kana kuswedera pedyo uye nekubatanidzwa kukuru kwedunhu kwauya zvakare pamberi.Nekudaro, tichifunga kuenderera mberi kwemaitiro aripo, ramangwana haritaridzi kuvimbisa kutengeserana kwemukati-LAC.Ipo mune mamwe matunhu epasi, kunyanya Asia, kutengeserana kwemukati menzvimbo kwakawedzera nekukurumidza kupfuura kutengeserana kwepasirese mumakore achangopfuura, simba rimwechete harina kuonekwa muLAC.
Mukushaikwa kwekukurudzira kukuru kutsva kwekubatanidzwa kwedunhu, kudzikiswa kwakakosha kwemitengo yekutengeserana kwemukati-LAC kana kuwana kukuru kwechigadzirwa, LAC inogona kuramba isingakwanise kuenderera mberi nekuvandudza kukosha kwayo uye kubatsirwa kubva kumusika wedunhu.Muchokwadi, fungidziro dzedu dzinoratidza kuti mumakore gumi nemashanu anotevera, kutengeserana kwemukati meLAC kunogona kuita isingasviki 15% yekutengeserana kwedunhu rose, kudzika kusvika makumi maviri muzana pamberi pe2010.
Kutarisa kumashure kubva kune ramangwana: Chii chekuita nhasi?
Mumakore makumi maviri anotevera, China ichave iri kuwedzera kukosha kwekutarisa kwehupfumi hweLAC.Kutengeserana kweLAC kunoda kushandura zvakanyanya kuChina-kukanganisa vamwe vanodyidzana nekutengesa uye intra-regional kutengeserana pachayo.Tinokurudzira:
Scenario Planning
Kuvaka mamiriro hakusi kwekufanotaura nezveramangwana, asi zvinobatsira vanobatana kugadzirira zvakasiyana zvingangoitika.Kuronga kuchinja mamiriro ezvinhu kunonyanya kukurumidza kana paine mhirizhonga pamberi: Semuenzaniso, nyika dzeLAC nemakambani anogona kukanganiswa neshanduko dzinogona kuitika mukuumbwa kweLAC inotumirwa kuChina.Dambudziko rekuita kuti zvikamu zvekutengesa kunze zviwedzere kukwikwidza mumusika weChina zvakangove pachena kuLAC.Zvakafanana ndezvechokwadi nezve kudiwa kwekugadzira mitsva, imwe misika yemisika yekutengesa kunze kweLAC, sekurima uye, kuwedzera, zvinhu.
Kubudirira uye Kukwikwidza
LAC vanobatana - uye vanogadzira mitemo uye mabhizinesi kunyanya - anofanirwa kuve akajeka-meso nezve kutengeserana kunokonzerwa nekushomeka kwechigadzirwa kunokanganisa chikamu chekugadzira.Pasina kugadzirisa nyaya dzinokanganisa kukwikwidza kwemaindasitiri mudunhu, LAC inotumira kunze kwenyika kuUS, kudunhu pacharo uye mimwe misika yechinyakare icharamba ichitambura.Panguva imwecheteyo, vanobatana muUS vangaita zvakanaka kutora matanho ekusimbisa kutengeserana kwehemispherical, kana kuchengetedza kutora chikamu kweUS mukutengesa kweLAC kunoonekwa sechinangwa chakakodzera kutevedzera.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-10-2021